PAS Musings

APC III - First-Principles Advantage

Recently, I wrote a posting about how one of one of the super-geniuses at PAS was busy inventing the next best thing in Advanced Process Control – something we code-named Galaxy.

Galaxy simplified the whole business of implementing APC schemes – which is a good thing because – until now – putting APC schemes in place required far too much expertise (and cost).

But Galaxy does more than save money – it also makes more money than a traditional APC scheme because it works better.  Here’s why…

For the most part, traditional APC applications are based on linear approximations of the process plant, which are then solved across a near-term horizon to generate a series of control moves that optimize a pre-defined objective function, subject to constraints.

This linear approximation approach works pretty well - as long as plant operations are kept in a small, pre-defined region.  As it turns out, a linear approximation works well for anything if you stay close enough to some starting point.

But the linear approach breaks down real fast once things start to change. 

Even the linear gurus recognize this and so they have a bunch of tricks to fix that –  step-wise linear modeling, gain scheduling, quadratic optimization and more.  All to get a more accurate model across a wider operating range so the controller can still generate (somewhat) accurate results. 

The better approach – the holy grail to the optimization of any plant – is to use first-principle chemical engineering models right in the control problem. 

Although lots of smart engineers have worked to do this, the mathematics and computing technology have not been there to support it.  After all, solving a complex multivariable non-linear problem in real-time needs a bit more than everyday freshman mathematics.

Galaxy changes all that.

Galaxy includes the mathematics and technology to allow a complex multivariable non-linear first-principles model to be solved fast enough on a pretty standard PC to be useful for real-time control. 

With Galaxy, the control engineer can use rigorous first-principles models and simpler linear approximations as desired.  The Galaxy solver and optimization engine then works out the whole problem in real time to give more accurate control predictions across a much broader range of plant operations.

So what’s the big deal?

The big deal is that Galaxy makes more money at the plant – because it does a better job of more closely controlling and optimizing, but also because it stays in control in those regions where linear modeling just doesn’t work.

This means that Galaxy can optimize and control a plant right through a grade change, feedstock switch, turndown and just about any other abnormal situation thrown at it.

And this isn’t just a nice story or wishful thinking.  Galaxy is already doing this in plants – going where no APC scheme has gone before…

Want to know more? Email me.

The Name is Out!

Well, the name is finally out. 

The newly enhanced and expanded Alarm Management cornerstone of the PAS Critical Condition Management software solution set has been officially re-christened and re-launched as AMO-Rt.

Click here to read all about it.

Despite all the wonderful name game entries, we settled on AMO-Rt for reasons of continuity and brand identification.  It may seem like a sub-optimal name now, but let me assure you that this is the best-ever name for the strategy that lies ahead! 

That’s the good news.

The bad news is how long it took us to get the word out.  Like I have been saying, we’re still just cranking up the marketing machine. 

In fact, now that the wheels are turning, we plan to have it spit out another 2-3  releases in the next month alone.  A little grease here and there does wonders!

In my mind it’s all about momentum… why once this machine ramps up to speed, I reckon we even ought to be able to revamp our entire website in support of our 52% growth plan for 2006.

Stay tuned!

Skype: Free is Good

I finally did it – after messing with calling cards etc to call a buddy down in the Caribbean, I signed up with Skype.

Skype is the peer-to-peer internet calling service that is the biggest factor to knock down the barriers of time and distance since email.  If you own stock in a telephone company that is not moving into cable and high-speed internet, now is the time to sell because that stock is about to follow GM right into the toilet.

Skype is the world’s leading internet telephony company out of the tiny European country of Luxembourg.  They were recently acquired by eBay for an astounding US$4,000,000,000-plus.  For a country ranked 97^th with a GDP of under $30billion, this is very impressive.  It also makes for two very rich dudes.

If you’ve not heard of Skype before, think KaZaA, a Napster follow-on which has turned the music sharing technology into real-time internet telephony.

Skype started with a beta product back in 2003 – less than 3 years ago! – and has rocketed to millions of users in no time at all.  In fact, they sign up 170,000 new users per day.  Today, one of them was me – and it’s easy to see what all the fuss is about.

Skype used to charge a membership fee to get started, but not anymore.  Now anyone can download Skype for free and start talking to any of the millions of Skype users worldwide right away – effectively turning their PC into a global telephone device.  And its all for free. 

<< download Skype soon, but keep reading for now >>

So what can the Skype story teach us?

     People still like free stuff,

but more importantly…

     People don’t mind change if it adds value

Skype is turning the telephone industry on its head. And, from my perspective, I think that there are software and service companies in our sector that can turn the markets we serve on its head. 

One more observation:  I doubt that Skype could have done what it did as a public company from the start. 

Which tells me that real innovations that turn industries on their heads have a better chance coming from a privately-held firm with a penchant for creativity and invention.  (As opposed to just focusing monthly/quarterly numbers at the expense of doing what’s right – we all know companies like that, right?)

I like the fact that PAS meets the basic requirements…

I also know we have the talent and ability to turn our industry on its head – not just by giving software or services away for free but by introducing the kind of products that change the industry by solving new problems, breaking down old barriers and bringing many times more value than their price.

I’m all for that… and I think I know where to look too!

In the meantime, y’all ought to get downloading Skype and move out of the Stone Age. 

Skype me anytime at rolandheersink – don’t worry about not knowing what that means – you’ll have that figured out within minutes of getting started…

Ciao!

APC II: No More Step Testing!

Some time ago, I wrote about the Advanced Process Control (APC) business and how it has delivered value but now faces a unique set of challenges related to vendor profitability and application maintenance.

In that posting, I proposed that some next-generation technology would reinvigorate the market by easing maintenance requirements while also improving application performance.  At PAS, the same super-genius who helped launch advanced control is back with his latest innovation – one that we have code-named “Galaxy”.

Without getting into details, Galaxy simplifies the whole business of implementing APC applications by making automating many of the implementation and maintenance requirements.  Galaxy packages up some very state-of-the-art technologies into a single application with a much lower “genius factor” requirement to the engineer.

Galaxy also extends the reach of APC applications by lowering costs and increasing benefits.  A lot.

Check this out…

Galaxy lowers costs by completely dropping the requirement for step-testing and model identification. The necessary process dynamics are identified automatically from actual plant data.

Galaxy also lowers costs by eliminating ongoing model maintenance.  The dynamic model is re-identified automatically and in real-time so that the controller is always consistent with changes to plant operation.

This is a big deal!

Traditional multivariable control technologies require that a highly-skilled APC engineer be onsite to maintain the multivariable controllers to keep them running effectively.  This costs an average US-based plant at least $30,000 per year per application. Or more, depending on how skilled the APC engineer is.

And in today’s environment, every plant manager would take a $150,000/year savings in a heartbeat.

>> For the doubters among you, PAS’s STAR multivariable control software has been delivering these no-step-test / no-model-maintenance to hundreds of sites worldwide for years as a predecessor to the latest Galaxy innovations.

Other vendors are just now catching on to the idea and introducing their own versions of this approach, but none have the 10+ years of installed base and field experience to match the hidden gem we call STAR…

Cost reduction is only one side of the story.  Increased benefit is the other.

More on that later…

2006 = +52%

PAS. 

Am I ever glad that I joined… despite the 100,000 mile commute!

>> Over 39% revenue growth.

>> Over 41% of license revenues put back into product development.

>> Over 90% more staff added.  (Wow!)

2005 was very good to PAS. Very good indeed!

And the detailed business-by-business review versus our 2006 plans shows that our growth rate of 52% set for 2006 may even be conservative!?!   

As we conduct the business-by-business reviews to kick off the year with the various business owners, I am tremendously enthused about what the year holds. 

Four great business lines – all healthy and well:

>> Advanced Control & Optimization

>> Critical Condition / Alarm Management

>> Automation Asset Management

>> System Configuration Services (so secret it has no web link…)

Four business lines that are all healthy and well in spite of a marketing spend of less than 3% in all of 2005.  Wow!

Not only is the company full of secret gems, but the whole place is a secret!!!!  And still it’s a success!  Imagine what can happen if we just get the word out…

It’s amazing enough to achieve 39% growth with no marketing, and even more amazing to plan for 52% growth with no marketing.

However, most amazing of all is that one of our fastest-growing business areas over the last two years has grown to a multi-million dollar business without any mention on our website, without a single flyer and without any specific sales focus! 

Fueled completely by customer satisfaction, our System Engineering and Integration Services – whether performed on-site or in our offices – has risen up purely by word of mouth.  Now that’s customer satisfaction!!!

The really great part is that we’re actually going to do some real marketing in 2006.  With all of our secret technology gems, wonderful people and incredible customer satisfaction I can only imagine what will happen as we ramp up the marketing machine!

2005 may have been good but 2006 is going to be even better!  (even with the 100,000 mile commute)

>> Lucky is the one who joins our team as our marketing manager – this is one opportunity that cannot fail!!!  Drop me an email to learn more…

Emerson Success = Boring?

No.

The Economist ranks pretty high among the journals and magazines I read – right after Caribbean Travel & Living that is.   

On a plane flight last week, I was catching up with the January 21^st issue of The Economist and came across a very flattering article all about Emerson. 

The story discussed how Emerson has gone through an unbroken run of continually rising earnings per share between 1957 and 2000 – 43 years of year-on-year, quarter-after-quarter growth. Wow!

The story went on to talk about how an increasing revenue share was coming from new products (innovation, like we value at PAS), a solid management team (average 26 year tenure for the top management!) and a strong leader in Mr. Charles “Chuck” Knight.

The recent story of Emerson success is in sharp contrast to a story run by the same publication in late 2005.

In the November 11 issue, the story headline ran: “The story of Emerson's successful management process is fascinating. If only the CEO sounded fascinated…”

Sound familiar??  Check out my last blog and read more about our industry.

Boring as we all may be, we’ve a right to be proud when those in our community get spotlighted in any periodical as renowned as The Economist!

I’m probably being too hard on ourselves – after all, none of our families think we’re all that boring, or do they?  Dare we do a reality check with our spouse and children…?

Some questions are best left unanswered...

A Boring Industry?

People sometimes ask me what it is like to work in our industry.  And when I try to explain what we all do to non-technical people, they mostly crinkle up their noses and hope I don’t drone on too long.

Generally, they’re bored by our explanations of how we all deploy software and technology to make chemical plants, oil refineries and other large-scale process plants run better.

Usually I just write off their reaction as not understanding – after all, how can a non-technical person really get what companies like PAS do anyway?

Even when I really try to dumb it down so that most anybody can get the gist of what we’re all about, I still get that look…  Oh, that’s interesting… I see… Uh-huh… (please stop talking, is what I guess they really mean).

There’s some truth to their reaction.

Our industry – the people and companies that apply software and technology to do the wondrous things we do – as a whole, our industry is pretty boring. Come on now, don’t be denying it.

It may have been exciting at one point, but if you look at the topics we’re talking about at industry conferences and trade shows, many of them are kind of stuck on the same thing.  They all cover important topics to be sure, but many of the topics have been around the block a few times already… (see my earlier blog)

As a group, we have invented hardly any new stuff in years.  Real-time databases, advanced control, process modeling, optimization – many of these topics have been out there for over 25 years in one form or another. And 25 years is old enough to classify as car as antique in many states.  Yikes!

How can I say this???  Look around at the industry “leaders”…  What really new and innovative software has been put out by any of them in the last 10 years? 

Ouch.

Although PAS might be like the other software and technology vendors in many ways, we have brought about more innovation than most.  In fact, most of the PAS solutions are the direct result of pioneering a market for others to follow.  Consider the following:

>> First no-step-testing multivariable control (1988)

>> First commercial alarm management solution (1996)

>> First automated system documentation solution (1996)

>> First rigorous model non-linear control solution (1998)

Much of what we do may have become standard practice (and that’s a good thing) but at least we’re still innovating new stuff.

Doing our bit to keep the industry moving forward, customers making more money, and plant operations even more reliable.

And making our industry just a bit less boring with a steady stream of new innovations.